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Some analyses of the third gravitational wave catalogue released by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration (LVK) suggest an excess of black holes around $15\!-\!20 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$. In order to investigate this feature, we introduce two flexible population models, a semiparametric one and a non-parametric one. Both make use of reversible jump Markov chain Monte-Carlo to optimise their complexity. We also illustrate how the latter can be used to efficiently perform model selection. Our parametric model broadly agrees with the fiducial analysis of the LVK, but finds a peak of events at slightly larger masses. Our non-parametric model shows this same displacement. Moreover, it also suggests the existence of an excess of black holes around $20 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$. We assess the robustness of this prediction by performing mock injections and running simplified hierarchical analyses on those (i.e. without selection effects and observational uncertainties). We estimate that such a feature might be due to statistical fluctuations, given the small number of events observed so far, with a 5 per cent probability. We estimate that with a few hundreds of observations, as expected for O4, our non-parametric model will be able to robustly determine the presence of this excess. It will then allow for an efficient agnostic inference of the properties of black holes.

 

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) merging in dwarf galaxies will be detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) in the mid-2030s. Previous cosmological hydrodynamic simulations have shown the prediction of massive BHs merging in dwarf galaxies, but these simulations are limited by their resolution and cannot follow BH pairs all the way to coalescence. We calculate the delay time between BH pairing and merger based on the properties of the BHs and their host galaxies, and use these properties to calculate gravitational wave strains for eleven different binary BHs that merge inside dwarf galaxies from eight cosmological simulations. This delay time calculation accounts for dynamical friction due to gas and stars, loss-cone scattering, and hardening of the binary due to gravitational radiation. Out of the eleven BH mergers in the simulations, five BH pairs will merge within 0.8–8 Gyr of forming a close pair and could be observed by LISA, and the remaining six are unresolved due to resolution limitations of the simulation. As all five of the resolved close pairs merge within a Hubble time, we make the broad estimate that close SMBH pairs in dwarf galaxies will merge and be detectable by LISA, but this estimate depends on either the presence of gas during orbital decay or a solution to the dynamical buoyancy problem in cored potentials.

 

Abstract ESA and NASA are moving forward with plans to launch LISA around 2034. With data from the Illustris cosmological simulation, we provide analysis of LISA detection rates accompanied by characterization of the merging massive black hole population. Massive black holes of total mass ∼105 − 1010M⊙ are the focus of this study. We evolve Illustris massive black hole mergers, which form at separations on the order of the simulation resolution (∼kpc scales), through coalescence with two different treatments for the binary massive black hole evolutionary process. The coalescence times of the population, as well as physical properties of the black holes, form a statistical basis for each evolutionary treatment. From these bases, we Monte Carlo synthesize many realizations of the merging massive black hole population to build mock LISA detection catalogs. We analyze how our massive black hole binary evolutionary models affect detection rates and the associated parameter distributions measured by LISA. With our models, we find massive black hole binary detection rates with LISA of ∼0.5 − 1 yr−1 for massive black holes with masses greater than 105M⊙. This should be treated as a lower limit primarily because our massive black hole sample does not include masses below 105M⊙, which may significantly add to the observed rate. We suggest reasons why we predict lower detection rates compared to much of the literature. 

Abstract Since 2015 the gravitational-wave observations of LIGO and Virgo have transformed our understanding of compact-object binaries. In the years to come, ground-based gravitational-wave observatories such as LIGO, Virgo, and their successors will increase in sensitivity, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will provide gravitational-wave observations of massive black holes binaries. Between the $\sim 10$ ∼ 10 –10 3 Hz band of ground-based observatories and the $\sim 10^{-4}$ ∼ 1 0 − 4 –10 − 1 Hz band of LISA lies the uncharted decihertz gravitational-wave band. We propose a Decihertz Observatory to study this frequency range, and to complement observations made by other detectors. Decihertz observatories are well suited to observation of intermediate-mass ( $\sim 10^{2}$ ∼ 1 0 2 –10 4 M ⊙ ) black holes; they will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers and measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, and they will enable new tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Here we summarise how a Decihertz Observatory could provide unique insights into how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, improve prospects for both multimessenger astronomy and multiband gravitational-wave astronomy, and enable new probes of gravity, particle physics and cosmology.